In the early 90's I started a small furniture business in rural Northern Israel. After a couple of years of hard graft things seemed to be on the up; the order book was healthy and I was employing several guys. Then Saddam Hussein decided to launch his Scud attacks and unwittingly I found myself in the midst of the first Gulf war. With the first rocket strikes, overnight, business completely dried up. Orders were cancelled, customers disappeared off to the military and only creditors phoned (they never go away). I had no income whatsoever. Something not dissimilar is happening in the housing industry right now. Mortgage lending in August was down a staggering 70%! Builders, large and small alike, are petrified both physically and mentally. New houses stand empty and buyers have all but disappeared. Back in Israel in the early 90's the incredible thing was that as quickly as things stopped they started again when the crisis passed. Within months the business was back up and running and we survived, admittedly a little worse for debt but happy to get back to normal. Nobody but nobody knows what lies in store after this credit crunch crisis passes. Commentators failed to see it coming, and anyone who tells you it’s over is just guessing. It's already caused a lot of stress and anxiety, and it continues. The reason for my little story is simply to illustrate that sudden stop/start cycles may be very unpleasant but they are not necessarily terminal. Buyers do re-emerge, houses will be built again and we can all trust in the adaptability of the economy to recover. That is small comfort to those already out of work - I fear there are many - but the situation remains eminently recoverable.
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