What have wooden handrails on a river bridge near my house and beneath the Royal Festival Hall got in common, apart from the fact that they are overlooking the Thames?  Answer:  they are both relatively new, made from inappropriate species and as a result are decomposing prematurely.  Why?  Almost certainly because the timber used was specified primarily on political and environmental criteria, without technical considerations.

Years ago a Local Authority works manager wouldn't have thought twice about proposing to use Burmese Teak; a wonderful outdoor species which nearly lasts forever.  But today, Burmese Teak can't be used because understandably, we find it politically unacceptable to use timber from a country run by despicable military tyrants.

Waste is the inevitable outcome and the environment suffers doubly from the trashing of good wood and its decomposition into the atmosphere.  The Burmese tyrants still remain just as tyrannical and the old works manager, who knew his timbers, has been replaced by a grey suited clerk, who knows his politics.

There is no easy solution here but the worst of it is that the generals continue to live high on the hog while the Burmese population suffer terribly because we don't buy their timber or other products.  These desperately poor folk endure virtually all the pain, and we have to replace rotten handrails.

I genuinely have no idea how to remove the detestable regime that runs Burma.  All the trade embargoes the western world can muster have not made the slightest difference to the Burmese military government and as long as India and China don't support sanctions, there is no chance of them ever being effective.  We have to think of a more humane way to bring about regime change rather than just impose futile economic sanctions.  Answers on a postcard…

Out of respect for our democracy we have to accept that the handrails can't be replaced with Burmese Teak.  I just hope that the clerk checks with TRADA as well as the NGO community before the replacement species is selected. 

 

Over the past 12 months, as the recession has set in, loggers stopped logging, saw millers stopped sawing, importers stopped importing.  There was just no point in producing for loss making price levels.  Better leave the trees in the ground to grow for another year or two and just hibernate through those bleak winter months.

The timber that was sold came from overblown inventories and it was a similar story in many industries around the globe.   Finally, the cycle has begun to ease and skeletal inventories will soon need to be supplemented in order to maintain surviving levels of trade.  It’s beginning to look like getting out of bed in the morning may once again be worthwhile.

In three or four months from now importers will be sufficiently willing to re-stock such that we will finally agree to pay a price that makes it worthwhile for the loggers to log and the saw millers to saw.  This will bring sighs of relief as reality creeps back into pricing and margins are driven by the need for profit as opposed to the need to generate cash.

For the end user, the timber sale of the century will draw to a close (American White Oak has been trading at prices not seen for 25 years!).  But this will not mean rampant price increases as demand remains too weak to fuel greed.  Prices will just return to a state of sustainable normality, perhaps ten or fifteen percent up on today’s levels, though well short of the highs of recent boom years.

In my years of running businesses there is never a period when it seems easy.  Often you only realise belatedly how good times were because as the months roll on it gets increasingly harder.  This rule may finally flip as 2009 unwinds because I'm not sure it could get much tougher for any of us.  Let's see whether I am still thinking that way come November with prices increasing and a great deal of cost eradicated from the whole supply chain…

So many people are talking about what they make of the budget.  Normally nobody seems very bothered and it’s forgotten by Thursday.  This week is different.  Sentiment seems to have shifted from mild economic optimism in the days leading up to the Chancellor's statement to outright gloom once it came out.  The discussion rages on.  Why?

Well, could it be because the stark reality of the recession is finally catching up with politicians and the public sector?  Here in the private sector we have now had the best part of a year to get used to the idea that the decade long boom is well and truly over.  We have seen large scale redundancies, pay cuts, very significant falls in profits and widespread bankruptcies. 

Structural imbalances such as the death of private sector pensions, overbearing government red tape and frivolous expenditure have been forced out from under the carpet.  Everyone knows the problems are there even if we don't yet know how to deal with them. 

Yet this very week I can still read articles in my local paper claiming that the public sector is being underpaid with unions seeking 10% annual awards for professional groups such as teachers and Local Authority managers demanding pay parity with business leaders.   

Don't get me wrong...I wish we could all have 10% and more but the reality is that the severe austerity measures of the last twelve months in the private sector are only just beginning to trickle in to the public sector.  This trickle has to turn into a flood because our government is extremely short of money.  It’s wake up time!

At the higher political level reality is catching up with the sometimes astronomical impact of government spending.  The eventual outcome is going to be extremely unpleasant for millions of public sector employees who are presently still far better sheltered from the downturn than their private sector counterparts.

The upshot of all this, I fear, is likely to be very high unemployment...bad news whatever your political persuasion or economic philosophy.  Some are already well on the way to readjusting for the new era.  I fear that the budget is the first stark prod for the rest that harder times are upon us.  Hence the feelbad.

One bright spot...CO2 emissions will be right down so the environment can breath a sigh of relief.

A few years ago Timbmet launched a really good new product; an oak laminated stair string with some very clever engineered veneer work on the faces to give the impression of a fourteen foot, clear board.  Development of the product took a lot of local market knowledge combined with much globe trotting to find three specialist suppliers; one for the core, one for the veneers and one for the assembly.
 
Initially the market reception was luke warm but, backed by some expensive marketing, a lot of energy and crucially a very good design, the product found a market and began to sell well.  Not very many months later competitors brought out their own cheaper imitations and even though the quality never quite matched ours in no time at all the product was being traded as a commodity.  We never did make good money on our strings which by the way we still sell.
 
I was reminded of the story as I strolled around the Ecobuild exhibition yesterday.  In my mind I was comparing the incredible innovation I saw in certain product sectors with the frankly rather stale offerings of the hardwood sector.  Is this because timber has little to offer?  Not likely, as we all keep reminding the market it's the most environmentally friendly product one can use and incredibly diverse in its properties.
 
Why then the lack of good designs?  Credit crunch aside one can only conclude that the topic we have mastered least as an industry is how to protect a good idea. We seem to have made an art form of copying (undermining?) innovation but we don't seem to know how to combine the crafts of creating a new product with the challenge of protecting it from the ravages of a free market. 
 
The impact is a double whammy.  As someone who loves innovation it dawned on me that my stairy tale has made me very cautious of investing, which is a great shame because I know of lots of great ideas for superior forest products that desperately need to be marketed.  If only we could protect the designs more effectively we could make these products viable.
 
The good news is that even if we have become somewhat risk averse we continue to experiment with new ideas.  I suppose the ultimate challenge is to develop products that are so clever it takes a lot more time and energy to copy them. 
 

I had the privilege last week of being invited to attend a student organised 'Sustainability Question Time' at Oxford Brookes University.  What a great night out!   Lively discussion and challenging questions.  The final panelist fairly casually concluded that the world as we know it has probably already passed the "tipping point" and is likely to collapse. 

No matter, that aside the evening proved how refreshing it can be to listen to the views of society's emerging leaders who don't have the vested interests and commitments that burden most people of my age.  Down with cars...we don't need 'em.  Turn your home heating down and wear a sweater.  Never, never, never board an airplane and always eat seasonal veg.

Whether doing all or even one of these things will make the slightest difference to the fate of the human race is a moot point but the sincerity and passion of the participants was a tonic to any person who, like me, is eternally optimistic that things always turn out well in the end.  My theory goes that if so many architecture students are so passionate about the world it must by definition be a good place.

Inevitably one comes away from such an event questioning one’s own values and lifestyle.  Whatever the issue there is surely always more one can attempt to do.  Ultimately, we can only ever be our own judge.  Few commentators will ever agree on what is the perfect solution(s) so one would hope that good will come from many small gestures combining together  into one large paradigm shift. 

 

I wasn't sure if there was still life left in the economy so in the last few weeks I decided to go and find out for myself.  I presented myself to some of our esteemed customers; the good news is that the economy is still alive, albeit a bit wheezy.

   I asked joinery manufacturers if they were busy, and many said they are. I visited builders’ merchants and asked if they were still selling wood, and the answer was yes.
   I even found a very well known luxury boat manufacturer who still has a twelve month order book.  Oh yes, and I also tried to buy my wife a second hand estate car and found every one I enquired about was already sold.

   Why is it then that I can hardly watch the BBC news any more because it is so gloomy? It seems the editors must be on downers to promote depression.  Last week one headline alarmingly sounded out that, in amongst all the falling indexes, inflation was down to 3.1%!  Are we now being fed the line that lower inflation is bad news even though the rate is still well over the government's 2% target?

  The notion of context couldn't be in the syllabus when they train journalists who apparently all seem to believe that a 1% fall in any statistic is an unmitigated disaster, signaling the end of the world as we know it.  There seems to be an obsession with how bad can we make the news sound.  Newsreaders vie with one another to see who can put on the most somber tone.  Surely soon they will have to take to openly weeping as they report the economic statistics.

  Honestly, life is still going on.  The phones still ring every day with orders and even if the numbers are lower there is work to be done.  Most importantly, economic fortunes are not the only issues, and I for one prefer not to be incessantly bombarded with bad economic news all the time as though the very existence of life on earth as we know it is under threat.  We need to celebrate the good things as well, but patently the media is not interested in that message.

   Take my word for it...the economy is still alive.

 

Modified timber featured a great deal in my diary last week.  It is probably more than just a coincidence that this complex subject somehow cropped up on my agenda just about every day. 

What is modified timber then?  Well, it seems that by either heating it or altering it with chemicals timber can be made more stable, durable and resistant to decay.  The science is not new by any means but it has come on at a pace in the past few years.  Combined with timber engineering, modified timbers can be applied in all sorts of previously unthought-of timber applications, such as, windows made from beech, cladding from whitewood, decking from ash.  The list is along as your imagination will stretch.

Although the products can have downsides - cost, waste disposal, strength and colour can all weaken the offering - rapid scientific development is beating away the critics.  For many applications it's only a matter of time before modified timbers will take hold.  Especially for the hardwood market this promises to be a development of internet scale proportions that will reshape the industry.

While there will always be a market for top quality hardwoods, there are sectors of the industry that are ripe for change, especially outdoor hardwood joinery, which is still far too attached to often dubious tropical species that it would be better to avoid.

I think the most interesting technologies are the heat treated products.  Baking timber at 190° Celsius does remarkable things to it.   Timbmet will soon be introducing several modified products to market that take the breath away.  There is a little further to go on the testing and performance verification front but it's only a question of time. 
But don't just take my word for it.  Take a look at the pre finished, modified beech windows that are now a regular feature in the Dutch market.  There, see, I told you.  My advice: don't worry about it, join it!

 

Business just seems to be getting harder at the moment.  In addition to a shocking industrial downturn our latest blight is the exchange rate.  Over the years we have gotten used to calm and stability where the pound sterling is concerned.  When movements have come they have been relatively gentle and manageable. 

Not now they ain’t!  Over the past few weeks we have watched the pound yoyo, not just against the headline grabbing American dollar, but against a host of other timber trading currencies as well.  Over a few weeks the fluctuations have been greater than some of our bulk trading margins.  It's a nightmare for a stock carrying importer, with prices having to be adjusted literally daily.

For slow moving stocks like hardwoods the maths becomes impossible with new stock bought when the pound was down being mixed with old stock bought spending higher value pounds.  When the variation pings by 20% what does one do?  Today we decided to just give up being scientific about it and just price as competitively as we can for the current market – not the most profitable way to run a business perhaps but better for our customers and less of a headache for us.

Customers are calling me up asking me what I think of the current situation.  Not good I suppose, but hey, we are still here.  I don't like to complain because on the whole I have been dealt good cards.  Times like this are a challenge to all of us and with a bit of luck, and a surge of hard work, one just has to fathom out the new rules for the trade and apply them as best as one can.  Not for the faint hearted.

 

Just back from a business trip to America.  There, one is treated to Wall St to Wall St coverage of stock market crash news.  Most news bulletins beam live coverage of the opening of trading every morning at 09.30.  The market indexes are broadcast in a continuous box on the TV screens, and average Americans speculate, often with almost hourly trades, as though they were betting on the horses at Newmarket.

I was attending a convention for senior figures from the US hardwood industry.  If you think we have a recession here in the UK then there needs to be a new word invented for what most of them are going through.  Considering that the output of hardwoods has halved in three years and there is an equity crash one would expect an atmosphere of utter gloom. 

Even though they are all watching a daily massacre of their personal pension plans they all remained remarkably buoyant.  I can only put that down to the old maxim that you should never gamble more than you can afford to lose.  If my American friends are sticking to that then considering some of the sums people admitted to me that were down they must be remarkably rich to start with.

With similar economic gloom almost bound to follow here in the UK what should one do to remain happy?  Count our blessings is my recommendation.  One needs to look at what one has, not at what one has lost.  On that score I am a lucky man and I hope I never fail to remember that fact when I am tempted to have a moan about the state of my company/ finances/pension plan or expenses. 

There are so many people in the world that have little or nothing to begin with.  Remarkably, many individuals I have met in the developing world have given me inspiration by maintaining their health and happiness regardless of continuous economic woes. 

 

 In the early 90's I started a small furniture business in rural Northern Israel.  After a couple of years of hard graft things seemed to be on the up; the order book was healthy and I was employing several guys.  Then Saddam Hussein decided to launch his Scud attacks and unwittingly I found myself in the midst of the first Gulf war.   With the first rocket strikes, overnight, business completely dried up.  Orders were cancelled, customers disappeared off to the military and only creditors phoned (they never go away).  I had no income whatsoever.   Something not dissimilar is happening in the housing industry right now.  Mortgage lending in August was down a staggering 70%! Builders, large and small alike, are petrified both physically and mentally.  New houses stand empty and buyers have all but disappeared. Back in Israel in the early 90's the incredible thing was that as quickly as things stopped they started again when the crisis passed.  Within months the business was back up and running and we survived, admittedly a little worse for debt but happy to get back to normal. Nobody but nobody knows what lies in store after this credit crunch crisis passes.  Commentators failed to see it coming, and anyone who tells you it’s over is just guessing.  It's already caused a lot of stress and anxiety, and it continues.   The reason for my little story is simply to illustrate that sudden stop/start cycles may be very unpleasant but they are not necessarily terminal.  Buyers do re-emerge, houses will be built again and we can all trust in the adaptability of the economy to recover.  That is small comfort to those already out of work - I fear there are many - but the situation remains eminently recoverable.